Tag Archives: Science communication

Could the internal combustion engine be greener?

For most people, fully electric cars are some way off. Most people still prefer to have a range of 300+ miles, and to fill up in a few minutes at one of several thousand filling stations.

So how bad is the car we know and love? Can it be made any better? In this article I look the most popular technologies and developments in this area.

The Internal Combustion Engine…

Until all-electric / fuel-cell / nuclear cars are fully realised – we will be stuck with the internal combustion engine. It is therefore well worth looking at how we can make the most of them.

The basics are simple – you heat up some gas, it expands and pushes a piston. In theory you should be able to get all of that heat and turn it into force.

The Internal Combustion Engine

The Internal Combustion Engine

Alas, there are details. We can’t extract all the energy because of the laws of thermodynamics – in fact the limit is about 37% given the temperature range in a typical petrol engine. Then you also have to spend some energy on sucking the gases in. You have to spend energy pumping the gases out. There is friction. There is the heat. The list goes on. Eventually we extract a pathetic 20-25%.

It is therefore not surprising that the piston-driven engine is still being improved despite nigh-on 300 years passing since the earliest versions.  There are still redesigns of the inlet manifold, of the valves, of the crankshaft – all designed to lessen the waste.

To pick one example, we can look at the Atkinson Cycle. One of the many great minds to apply itself to engine efficiency was James Atkinson. He realised that if the power and exhaust strokes were designed to be longer than the intake and compression strokes (see a good animation here), you could let the hot gases expand to a greater volume then they previously occupied – and thus be cooler – so your exhaust gases carry away less embodied energy.

It really works – but is not used. Why? Well mainly because we are too committed to the current design and too much money has been spent in its evolution (which was driven by the need for power, not efficiency); to go back the drawing board has simply been too much hassle. Of course, times they are a-changing…

Another technology waiting for its time in the sun is the “VCR” engine, which stands for Variable Compression Ratio. This is a system in which the volume of the combustion chamber may be adjusted depending on whether you are accelerating, coasting or pulling a caravan up the Col du Tourmalet. It promises to constantly optimise the energy extraction. If its developers can convince major car manufacturers to trust the rather complex crank arrangement it may well be a viable alternative in as soon as 5 years from now. Watch this space.

The Transmission

Enough about the engine – what about the clutch and gearbox? That’s the “tranny” to my American friends, which means something totally different here in the UK.

The transmission’s job is to allow the car to vary speed from 0 to over 100 mph whilst the engine only varies only from around 800 – 6000 rpm, which is a much smaller range. With only 4 or 5 gears you need to use a fair range of engine revs to drive, however, the engine is not equally efficient at all speeds.

Pricnple of the CVT, with thanks to HowStuffWorks.com

Principle of the pulley-based CVT, with thanks to the brilliant HowStuffWorks.com

The idea has therefore been brewing for a device that can allow complete freedom for the engine to run at its most efficient speed, regardless of the car’s speed.

Its called the ‘continuously variable transmission’ or CVT. The most practical design is the pulley-type (see image), though others are also being developed.

In addition to allowing the engine to run at its most efficient speed,  there is also  no disruption of power flow due to gear changes. All of this will add a few vital % to your overall efficiency.

Aside: The CVT is also a vital part of an electric car using regenerative braking, as the gearing can be used to control the braking effect created by the motor/generator.

The fuel…

While hydrogen produced from renewable electricity (say hydroelectric) is one route to reduced carbon emissions, another is the idea of renewable versions of liquid fuels, the so-called bio-fuels.

While bio-fuels do not have as many issues to overcome as hydrogen, they are still far from a clear-cut solution.

Bio-fuels are simply flammable liquids made from plants (nature’s solar panels) – not only is it a renewable energy source (i.e will not run out), but the growing plants also suck CO2 from the air, so could indeed evolve less net CO2 than sources like coal-derived electricity (or hydrogen made from coal-derived electricity). On the other hand, the balance only works well if the bio-fuel is farmed in an energy (and carbon) efficient way.

The idea is fundamentally good, but as with almost all of the other ideas I have discussed, there is a flip-side.

For the first time, there is a risk of direct competition between poor farmers in remote tropical zones, and the big, fat westerner in his or her gas-guzzler. The latter wants something in their fuel tank and the former wants something in their stomach.

There was much speculation last year that the trend towards bio-fuels was responsible for the crisis in commodity food prices. This may or may not have been the cause – it may well have been the result of irresponsible speculation by commodity traders because few bio-fuel crops have directly displaced food crops. However, the question remains: will the drive for bio-fuels interfere with food supply in the future?

There is also the question of whether rain-forests may be razed to make way for the required crops (there are many choices depending on the rainfall and sunshine levels – cane, corn, beet, sorghum, rapeseed, sunflowers or palms to name a few). If an existing forest is razed it not only destroys biodiversity, but usually also results is a massive belch of CO2 into the atmosphere that will takes many years to offset.

However, bio-fuels are still too promising to let alone.

In Europe most diesel already contains a certain percentage of bio-fuel and the EU has targets for bio-fuel use in transport (5.75% by 2010). Even though the target is unlikely to be met, the trends are strong.

The technical barriers are not too serious – most diesel cars can take bio-diesel blends and can usually be made to take pure bio-diesel with minor adjustments. Bio-ethanol can equally be blended with petrol, and at 10%, many modern cars would in fact run better. However, higher levels are still the reserve of so-called “flex-fuel vehicles’ (FFV’s). These are very popular in Brazil, the world’s leading producer or sugar-based bio-ethanol. The US (especially California) is also leading in this initiative. Although to be fair, this too is not a new idea: the Model-T Ford was a FFV!

In the next article I will looking at the driving techniques that can get 20% more miles out of each tank.

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Green Car Technologies Explained

Let’s say you are a big-shot. You need to get around. And public transport is just not going to cut it.

You do a lot of miles and want to go the extra mile to minimise your impact – what should you do?

The answer any good car salesman would give you is: get a Prius (in case you missed it, this is Toyota’s flagship ‘hybrid’ high efficiency offering).

Sounds good, but what is a a hybrid? Is that electric? Do I need to plug it in at night? And what are the alternatives? Are there any?

In this section, I hope explain this and some of the other things coming down the turnpike.

Electric, Hydrogen and Hybrid Cars

Time to plug in?

Time to plug in?

Electric cars are not new. The idea has been around since cars were first made. The problem has always been with the batteries – you need big ones to go far, but the bigger they are, the heavier the car, and so the more batteries you need.

Add to this that batteries take hours to “fill up”, whereas you can can fill the petrol tank in about a minute, and you start to see the issues.

Once you point out that electrical energy is not exactly cheap, and that you are probably not saving the planet unless you get your power from a hydro-electric dam, and you can see why they have not taken off.

So why don’t they just make smaller batteries that charge-up quicker?

Well they are trying. The cell phone industry has driven up the ‘energy density’, but batteries are still rather pathetic compared with petrol. While 60 litres of petrol contains about 2GJ of energy, a pretty good (NiMH) battery of similar weight will muster a paltry 0.02GJ (less than 100th as much). The very highest-tech batteries – still impractical – such as Lithium Thionyl Chloride (LiSOCl2), still contain less than a 10th the energy of simple gasoline.

As a result electric cars cannot go very far on a single charge, and makes them impractical for most road users.

The smart money has not been holding its breath. The next beacon in the night was hydrogen. It packs in three times more energy in per kilogram than petrol. It makes water when it burns. How lovely.

The first problem with hydrogen is the overall efficiency – first you need to make electricity (with some inefficiency losses) – then you need to ‘make’ the hydrogen (with further losses), then you need to compress the hydrogen (yet more losses) and then you need to either burn it or convert it back into electricity in a fuel cell – both of which have more losses still. They all add up. However, these efficiencies are perhaps temporary problems…

A more permanent problem with hydrogen is its low density and thus large volume. Even when compressed to a liquid it still only contains a third the energy of an equivalent tank of petrol. Oh, and because its under very high pressure, the tank needs to be made from thick steel.

This means hydrogen cars also have poor range – and as hydrogen filling stations are rather rare, again this technology is still far from practical for Joe Public.

Due to these problems, the smart money has been looking elsewhere: a compromise solution, that tries to improve efficiency and also reduce emissions but without the short range: the so-called “hybrid”.

The Next Prius - the Toyota Prius is the top selling Hybrid

The Next Prius - the Toyota Prius is the top selling Hybrid

This is not rocket science. It is basically a car with a fairly normal engine, but also with an electric motor and battery pack.

The logic is that regular internal combustion engines waste energy when the car is running slowly or stopped at the lights. So why not switch over to an electric motor in these situations? And the electric motor runs off batteries which charge from the regular engine when it is running, though in some models the batteries can get a supplementary charge via a power socket at home .

But there is of course something extra that electric (and hybrid) cars can do: they can recover energy during braking – they call it regenerative braking.

The electrical boffins among you will know that a motor, which turns electric current into rotary motion, can work the other way too – turning rotary motion into electric current – when run this way, a motor becomes a generator.

So a car that uses an electric motor to drive the wheels can be used as a motor as you speed up, and a generator as you slow down.

The ability to recover energy from the brakes is where the big savings can be made, especially in town driving, and especially for heavier vehicles. A 2000kg car going at 40 mph has the kinetic energy equal to about 10ml (2 teaspoonfulls) of petrol, and since internal combustion engines are only about 20% efficient, that’s really about 50ml worth – which you burn every time you brake.

And that ‘s why someone came up with regenerative braking.

Aside on electric cars: Electric motors are generally quieter than standard engines. A very real challenge, believe it or not, for electric and hybrid cars, is pedestrian safety. They’re having to test simulated engine noise generators! Strange but true.

Coming soon?

Coming soon?

Why not Solar Power?

Many people have suggested that solar panels, aka photovoltaic (PV) cells, may have utility for electric and hybrid cars. Surely it would help to add some panels on the roof and bonnet?

It sounds good, but alas, solar power is fairly dilute – about 1kW per square meter is an estimate used in the industry. And while a few kW may drive your household’s minor appliances, it doesn’t do much for a car. Even small car engines pack over 50kW. There is simply not enough return, even if solar panels were 100% efficient.

When you add the fact that the real “insolation” (power of sunlight) is about 1/10th of the industry claimed 1kW/sqm, and that solar panels are typically only 20% efficient you can see where this is going.

Energy storage

We have already noted that energy storage is key to the challenge. Petrol and diesel pack a punch, but are not renewable and belch carbon dioxide, while batteries would need to be enormous and take ages to recharge.

Nickel Metal Hydride Battery

Nickel Metal Hydride Battery

Hydrogen is not dense enough so you need a colossal reinforced tank if you want to go any distance, and pocket-sized cold fusion reactors are still firmly in the SF domain.

There are however a profusion of ways to store energy, so what other options do we have?

Motorsport fans may have heard about the new F1 regenerative braking systems, called KERS (Kinetic Energy Recovery System), will also know that they are looking at flywheels and capacitors as alternatives to batteries.

A flywheel

A flywheel

The flywheel is simply a spinning disc which stores the kinetic energy in rotational form. This sounds simple, and can be very efficient but requires a fantastically strong flywheel, and will disintegrate if over-charged. Flywheels also have an annoying habit of resisting turns – that is to say their axis of rotation likes to stay pointing the same way, and so would probably need to be mounted within gimbals to allow a car to go around corners…

Flywheels can however achieve pretty good energy densities (comparable to batteries) and are very efficient. They can charge up and down faster and more often than batteries, but are, on the downside, far more expensive.

Ultracapacitors from Maxwell

Ultracapacitors from Maxwell

Capacitors are much cheaper – and can also charge and discharge quickly and many times. The capacitor is the electrical equivalent of a spring. You apply the electric equivalent of pressure (voltage) to the capacitor and it creates an electric field which stores energy. It is fundamentally different to a battery in which an applied voltage supplies electrons which drive reversible chemical reactions; it can charge and discharge much quicker too.

So what’s the catch? Rubbish energy density. Significantly worse than batteries or flywheels (which are of course already pretty poor compared with hydrocarbon fuels).

There are many other clever ways to store energy – in springs, elastic bands, compressed gases, raised weights – plenty for inventors to think about, but, alas, too many to cover here.

Despite this profusion, neither batteries or any of the alternatives pack the punch of petrol, so it’s going to figure in our future.

In my next article I ask: what we can do to make the most of our friend, the internal combustion engine? I look at their efficiency and also take a detour of perhaps a ‘green’ way to keep using them: with biofuels.

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Series home…

What makes an efficient car?

Q: why are some cars so much more efficient than others?

Many people will say small=good, big=bad.

That’s a pretty good start, because big cars are probably heavier and also have more wind resistance.

But the rule does not work universally. Sports cars may be small – and look aerodynamic, but may still use lots of fuel so what’s going on there?

The sad reason for that is that the cars and trucks we drive have most often been optimised for speed, power and appearance and not necessarily for efficiency. This may be due to the circumstances in the 20th century – in which the vehicles we use today evolved – where the supply of oil appeared more-or-less infinite and where there were apparently no consequences for burning it.

So what factors determine how efficient a car or truck will be?

#1 Engine type

Petrol or diesel?

Petrol or diesel?

There are two major competing technologies – petrol and diesel. 

Diesel engines were not promoted for many years (for cars) as they tend to be sluggish and noisy. However they are the more efficient technology in terms of miles per gallon and carbon dioxide emissions (CO2 is the main ‘greenhouse gas‘).

However they have become steadily smoother and more refined and really took off in the 80’s – helped somewhat by government incentives (mainly in mainland Europe). However, they soon became implicated in city smog problems, so many incentives were dropped.

The engines continue to improve with efficiencies now perhaps 20% better than the equivalent petrol version – and as concern over CO2 grows diesel engines are again increasing popularity.

So why are diesel engines more efficient?

This is for two reasons: firstly, the engine internal losses are lower; petrol engines control their speed by ‘throttling’ the air supply to the engine – that is to say they hold back the air and make the engine suck it in through a small gap – a tactic which takes a lot of energy. Diesel engines just let the air in with arms wide open.

Secondly, diesel engines have a higher compression ratio which allows them to extract more energy (according to the laws of thermodynamics). Petrol engines cannot compress their fuel any more than they already do because petrol will spontaneously explode if compressed too much, and push the compressing piston backwards. It was this very problem that led Rudolf Diesel to invent the Diesel engine in the first place. In his design the fuel is only added after the air is compressed, totally side-stepping the issue.

#2 Car Dimensions

The most important measurement is the frontal projected area; this is unfortunate because a big cross section is what makes a nice roomy car. Tall cars are bad, wide cars are bad. It’s best to use the length if you need volume – which is the trick trains use.

It also turns out that nice fat tyres are also bad. Sorry. Biscuit wheels have less rolling resistance.

Sportcars do not slip through the air, they push it upwards...

Sports cars do not slip through the air, they push it upwards...

What about aerodynamics though? Surely a Ferrari slips through the air? Yes, to a degree, but not as much as you might hope – for one thing, Ferraris are surprisingly wide, but more interestingly, they are not actually designed to slip through the air – they are in fact designed to push the air upward in order to get downforce. Those big wings at the back are not there to cut through the air – they’re there to give the tyres more grip…

#3 Car Mass

It is hard work to lug a heavy suitcase around. It is obviously hard work to lug a heavy car around. That said, the laws of physics say that heavy items also have more momentum and so will roll further once moving – so you can in fact recover much of the energy if you take advantage of that momentum. The energy is really only ‘lost’ when you use the brakes and turn it to heat. 

This energy recovery trick, combined with ‘regenerative braking’ can reduce the impact of car weight, however generally speaking all additional weight is bad.

PS. I will cover efficient driving tactics and also ways to recover energy from the brakes in forthcoming articles in this series.

#4 Transmission

I know automatic gearboxes are nice. They free up the brain to worry about other things. But they are still bad for fuel efficiency – and for some interesting reasons.

Firstly, fuel efficiency depends on always being in the right gear to get the most out of the engine. However even the best and newest models still don’t change gear at the ideal time – whereas a skilled driver could.  Why not? Surely the brainy chaps at Toyota have perfected it all by now? Alas, no. The reason is this: the gearbox doesn’t have all the information the driver has. The driver may know he or she is about to crest a hill or hit some traffic. The gearbox can’t know this – it simply has to make a judgement based on the angle of your foot on the pedal and the current applied torque.

Secondly, some automatic gearboxes are less good at ‘coasting’ (i.e disconnecting the wheels from any internal machinery to reduce friction and engine resistance).

Aside for health and safety officials from the government: Some might say coasting is unwise; it is suggested that having the power to both slow down or speed up a short notice may improve safety; it is also suggested that engine braking is safer than foot braking because it is less inclined to the lock the wheels. These arguments do actually hold some water. While it is in fact possible to use engine braking to put the car into a skid, it is, in general, wise to take corners in gear as you will have more precise control over speed, and in the (rare) case of brake failure (or the more likely case of a foot slipping off the brake pedal), control is more likely to be maintained. I suggest therefore that coasting should only be done in safe conditions and at low speeds.  

The last problem with automatic gearboxes is all the fluid. While manual gearboxes do have some oil to churn,  the average automatic gearbox is a veritable fountain. The engine connects to the gearbox through a torque converter, which is a cunning clutch-like device based on discs spinning in fluids.

In the gearbox itself, the rotating shafts are used to pump fluids at high pressures through various tight channels and orifices in order to drive actuators that engage and disengage the absurdly clever planetary gearing. All this fluid-flow has inherent frictional loss, and thus reduces efficiency.

#5 Efficiency of Utilisation

What do I mean by ‘utilisation’? Well answer me this: what is more efficient, a Toyota Prius or a Grand Voyager? 

The answer is clear: it depends  – on how many people you are carrying.

Much can be said for using the vehicle right for the job. If you need a big van once every six months, look at renting or borrowing one, and drive something smaller.

#6 Age and Embodied carbon

This time I am asking: what is more efficient, a nice new Prius or your 3 year old one? You might think a new one would have the edge, but what you need to remember is that it takes an awful lot of carbon to make a new car, and it may take years to work that off. Rather keep your three-year-old in tip-top shape and hold onto it until its efficiency starts to dip –  until the new model really is significantly better.

Classic Cortina

Classic Cortina

If however you don’t have a Prius but have an old guzzler, the carbon may balance out rather more quickly – it really won’t do to keep driving your 3-litre Cortina for ever.

#7 On-board computer

If you get a car with an instantaneous fuel consumption display, you may find yourself trying to set a record – and learning a lot on the way. 

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In my next article I discuss some of the innovative green car technology that is on the horizon.

 

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Series home…

The Beginner’s Guide to Green Motoring

The 20th century has the seen the rise of the car in the western world. It has impacted the evolution of our cities, our roads and our houses – and we have therefore become rather dependent on them. We co-exist!

However, the effects of carbon emissions are emerging now and we find ourselves on the horns of a dilemma – to drive, or not to drive?

For those of us who can’t give it up, I have written a series of articles looking at the environmental impact of the motor car and looking at what we should be doing to minimize our impact.

hummer

Gas guzzler.

1. What makes an efficient car?

2. Green car technologies explained…

3. Making the internal combustion engine greener

4. How to drive more efficiently

That’s it for now, but I will hopefully add more in time.


©Jarrod R. Hart 2009

Gravity explained in 761 words

People seem to be harbouring the impression that there is no good theory of Gravity yet. I asked a few friends – most thought Newton had explained it, but couldn’t explain it themselves. This is rather sad, 80-odd years after a darn good theory was proposed.

Of course there is still some controvery and the odd contradiction with other beloved theories, but the heart of the General Theory of Relativity really does a great job of explaining gravity and it is really wonderfully beautiful, and can be roughly explained without recourse to jargon and equations.

This is a theory that’s just so darn elegant, it looks, smells and tastes right – once you get it. Of course, the ‘taste’ of a theory doesn’t hold much water; for a theory to survive it needs to make testable predictions (this one does) and needs to survive all manner of logical challenges (so-far-so-good for this one too).

This is not a theory that needs to remain the exclusive domain of physicists, so for my own personal development as a scientist and writer, I thought I might try an exercise in explaining what gravity is – according to the general theory of relativity.

For some reason, my wife thinks this is strange behaviour!

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The story really got started when Einstien realised that someone in an accelerating  spaceship would experience forces indistinguishable from the gravity felt back on Earth. 

He or she could drop things and they would fall to the floor (assuming the spaceship is accellerating upwards)  just as they would fall on earth.

So perhaps that’s all gravity is… some sort of accelleration? Let’s see.

In the spaceship, it’s clear to us that the objects would appear to fall to the floor, but in reality, it is the floor of the spaceship that is rushing up towards the objects – this explains why things fall at the same speed whether heavy or light, matching Galileo’s own test results when he dropped various things, supposedly from the leaning tower of Pisa. It further implies that things will ‘fall’ even if they have no mass at all… such as light beams.

The thought experiment goes thus: Consider if you had a laser-beam shining across the spaceship control room; it would curve slightly downwards, because the light hitting the opposite wall would have been emitted a little time ago, when the spaceship was a little way back, and going a bit slower (remember, its accellerating).

We know the light is not bending, it is just that the source is accellerating, resulting in a curved beam. Imagine a machine-gun spraying bullets across a field – as you swing the gun back and forth the bullets may form curved streams of bullets, but each individual bullet still goes straight.

So Einstein suggested that perhaps light beams will bend in this same way here on earth under a gravitational field. Now Newton’s theory of gravity says light beams may also bend if they have ‘mass’, but the mass of light is a dodgy concept at best (it has inertia but no rest mass, but that’s a whole different blog posting). Anyway, even it it does have mass, it would bend differently from what Einstien predicted. So the race was on to see how much gravity could bend light…

This bending of light prediction was proven by a fellow called Eddington who showed that during a solar eclipse, light from distant stars was indeed bent as it passed near the sun, and by exactly the predicted angle.

Einstein went further though, suggested that light beams on Earth are, just like on the spaceship, really travelling straight, and only appear to bend, and that this can be so if space-time itself is curved. They are going straight, but in curved space.

We know that the shortest distance between two points is a straight line, but if that line is on a curved surface, supposedly straight lines can do strange things – like looping back on themselves. Think of the equator. This model therefore allows things like planets to travel in straight lines around the sun (yes, you read right).

The model has been tested and shown to work, and gives good predictions for planetary motion.

So what can we take home from all this?

Well mainly, if this model is right, we need to let it sink in that gravity may not be a force at all, but an illusion, like the centrifugal ‘force’ you experience when you drive around a corner.

Secondly, it is an open invitation to think about curved space and its marvellous implications!

Extrapolating your way

There is a very powerful scientific reasoning tool that I use, that, it occurs to me, I wasn’t actually taught… the simple art of extrapolation.

Most people have a pretty good idea of what extrapolating is – its where you look at a trend and predict what will happen if that trend persists. 

For example, if I said it took me 6 months to save £500, I can use extrapolation to predict how long it will take me to save £2000; its something we do all the time – yesterday I was driving down from Bristol, I could count off the the miles, and knowing the distance, I could predict if I would make it for dinner (I didn’t).

Scientists use this too. A good example is the way we can calculate the temperature of “absolute zero” by looking at the volume of a balloon as you heat it up. If you had a balloon at 25C, and you heat it to about 55C its volume would increase by about 10%. What does that tell us? It tells if we cooled it, it would eventually have no volume – and that this would happen at around -275C (-273.15C actually) – absolute zero.

Of course, the method relies upon assumptions – usually the assumption that the trend will continue in the same way (people often use the term “linear” to represent relationships that form straight lines when plotted on a graph).

What if the relationship is non-linear? For example, if little James is 5 feet tall when he is 10, how tall will he be when he is 20? Clearly he won’t be 10ft tall – that is because the relationship between height and age is “non-linear”.

Most of us are smart enough to extrapolate without knowing the jargon, but when the relationships get complicated a bit of maths and jargon can help.

For example, if we want to examine the population of bacteria in a petri dish, or the spread of a virus (or a rumour) through a population, our mental arithmetic is not always up to it. Luckily, some scientists have realised even these complex affairs have some predictability and although “non-linear”, they can still be modelled – graphs can be plotted and extrapolations made.

If this interests you, I refer you to books on epidemiology; I will move onto another sort of extrapolation – one used to check people’s theories by identifying ‘impossible’ extrapolations.

Let’s say, for example, that the want to predict  how the obesity epidemic will progress in the coming decades. If the media says obesity in a certain group increased from 14-24% between 1994 and 2004, and then goes on to predict that obesity will therefore reach 34% by 2014, does this withstand scrutiny?

Never mind that the definition of obesity may be faulty (BMI), never mind that they are extrapoliting from 2 data points – let’s rather ask if the linear trend is justifiable. This can be done by extrapolating the prediction to try to break it. 

If the model is right, obesity will go on increasing and soon enough 100% (or more!) of the population will be obese. This is clearly wrong – obesity is not likely to get everyone – vast swaths of the population are likely to be immunised to some extent against obesity due to active lifestyles and good dietary educations, or perhaps its in their genes, the lucky things. 

The truth will of course be more complex – the first group to become obese will be the most vulnerable, so an increase from 14-24% may incorporate that group, but each successively 10% will be harder fought.  All this is enough to suggest the predictions made for 2014 are doubtful, and those that go further are downright shameless. But it doesn’t stop them

I am sure you can think of other suspicious trend-based predictions, like those for peak-oil or global warming. They could do with some improvements, so get to it!

 

Science’s image problem; an essay

This was originally posted by me on the Skeptic Forum in February 2006. I wanted to keep a copy, so I have popped it up here with some edits following the advice of the forum readers.

Science’s Image Problem 
Jarrod R. Hart 
January 2006    

Science, technology and the whole idea of modernity has developed an image problem. 

To illustrate this trend lets pick a year some will remember well: 1969. 

Neil Armstrong and Edwin “Buzz” Aldrin have just walked on the moon, microwave ovens have started to appear in kitchens and nuclear power seems to hold the key to unlimited energy. 

Communication has been revolutionised by the satellite, women’s lives have been revolutionised by the contraceptive pill and the quality of life is sky rocketing: labour saving devices such as automatic washing machines, food processors and lawn mowers are finding their way into the homes of the masses. Confidence in science is at an all time high. 

Now it is 2006. In the minds of many the term ‘science’ is associated with things like animal testing, genetic engineering, global warming and nuclear war. People are even starting pay a premium for food made in ways that avoid modern technology (so called ‘organic’ foods). So what changed? 

There are many answers to this question and I am sure many readers will have powerful examples from their own fields of experience; I will however put forward theory that I feel holds water. 

Events 

When Harold Macmillan, the then Prime Minister of the UK was asked what could steer a government off course, he answered “Events, dear boy, events!” And, as I now suggest, a handful key events has been largely responsible for starting the rot. 

Public opinion is a strange beast. It is wildly reactionary and often auto-catalyzes in a frenzy of irrationality. Although its true that amazing faith can develop with little or no evidence (the latest wonder-diet for example!), this is usually born from a strong desire to believe. Far more often, it is much easier to destroy public confidence than to build it. 

Three Mile Island (1979), Bhopal (1984), Chernobyl (1986), and the Exxon Valdez oil spill (1989) all had profound effects on the public psyche. Not only did the dark side of industry rear its ugly head, but also, for the first time, the man on the street began to realise “hey, I have an opinion on this!” The general public did not immediately turn against technology, but rather, they started to ask questions. 

The Media Machine 

I would like to suggest that the rot only took hold when the media sensed this insecurity. In a fair world, an honest, open, questioning attitude is a good thing. But this world is not fair. 

Technology had, until the early 80’s, been presented in a very positive light in the media. Big business had for a long time used the public’s confidence in technology to ease in new products and services. All a marketing team needed to do was describe their product as “modern” – and this immediately implied an innate superiority. For some reason, old was bad and new was good. 

In the 1980’s something changed. People’s level of exposure to the media hit a critical level – just enough to make people think they were ‘well informed’. This new level of exposure meant, for the first time, that people were having news of industrial disasters piped into their sitting rooms. And since the public knew about it, the public would have an opinion about it. But who would decide what that opinion would be? This leads us to the ultimate downfall in the public image of technology, for too often, it would be the media that would decide for us. 

To illustrate, simply ask yourself what makes better reading – “Scientists develop drought resistant crops” or “FRANKENFOOD!” 

In the simple battle for the public’s attention, scaremongering has prevailed and its not surprising at all – its so easy! Science has this nasty habit of dealing with unknowns: questions, hypotheses and statistics. It rarely (if ever) deals in cold hard facts. This makes science a sitting duck. 

The nineties bear this trend out, and issues like the vanishing rain forests, global warming, cancer from cellular phones and genetic engineering all took their toll. 

To most people, something is either good for you or bad for you. Radiation is bad, vitamins are good; bacteria are bad and exercise is good. The media like this simple worldview – it makes for good sensational headlines and ensures that articles aren’t too full of ‘complicated science’. 

The need for shock value naturally leads to half-truths. While any chemist knows “the poison is in the dose”, most people don’t, and the media takes full advantage of this. 

Radiation (sunshine!), just like vitamins, can be good (in moderate doses) and bad (in excessive amounts). Bacteria, exercise, alcohol and almost anything for that matter is usually good and bad depending on how much, when and for whom. As Oscar Wilde said, “The truth is rarely pure and never simple”. 

To make matters worse, once a piece of misinformation is out there, it is hard to stop and even harder to bring anyone to account. 

A good example was the hullabaloo surrounding research by Dr Andrew Wakefield of the Royal Free Hospital in London. In his 1998 paper Dr Wakefield highlighted a “possible” link between the MMR jab (the combined Mumps, Measles and Rubella vaccine given to many children routinely) and Autism. Although it was only suggested as a possibility, needless to say the media had a field day, cleverly leaving out the ifs and buts: for example: “Child Vaccine Linked to Autism” (BBC News, 27 Feb ’98). This simple irresponsible action lead to several years of reduced vaccine take-up, with possibly fatal consequences. 

This type of misinformation is particularly dangerous because is parades as ‘proper science’. The media, by referencing a scientific paper in a reputable journal (The Lancet) are lending themselves credibility, but then the simple act of removing a single word (“possible” in the above case) they have degraded the science and greatly harmed its reputation. 

Statistics: The Media’s WMD 

Society used to simply trust the expertise of authority without question. People suffered from some sort of inferiority complex that made them think that ‘scientists’ would know best. As we have seen the media has eroded this with scaremongering, sensationalising and misreporting. However, they have one more killer tool in the toolbox: Statistics. 

The world is a complicated place. There is far too much information to possibly report it all, so we need to distil all the facts into key elements, ‘salient points’ if you like, that give a fair representation of the whole. In order to do this correctly, science produced the statistical method, a rational system for describing sets of data. It provides ways of letting the human mind grasp the important information held in large lists of numbers. The ‘average’ is a good example a player’s batting average is a faster and easier way to judge him then a long list of all the swings he or she ever took. 

So, statistics are essential to the media, who routinely inform us, sometimes well. However, few people out there realise how easily statistics can be coloured and spun. This problem is compounded by the problem that most people have coping with very large numbers (the same trick the lottery uses to fool people into thinking a lottery ticket is a wise investment). 

Rather than do a poor job of examining this, I refer you to a good analysis on the subject: “Damned Lies and Statistics: Untangling Numbers from the Media, Politicians, and Activists” by Joel Best (2001, University of California Press) 

Attacking Science 

Another damaging phenomenon worth noting is the new tendency for the media to attack science directly. Recently, especially in the global warming debate, certain parties (with vested interests) have used the media to accuse science of dealing in uncertainty. 

The very pillars that form the foundation of science, things like theories, scepticism and debate are being held up as evidence that scientists cannot agree on anything. Is the world heating up as the result of human activity? According to some, ‘possibly’ is the best answer that science can offer. 

Scientists are rightly incensed by this slander, but what can they do? It is proving very hard to explain to the masses why this uncertainty is good and right. 

It will be even harder to explain to the people that even when most scientists do agree, they are often later proved wrong, which many will cheerfully accept, changing their position in the light of the new evidence. But this great strength is seen as flip-flopping by the public, another sign of weakness. 

The Future 

In this short essay, I have tried to examine why the reputation of science has been taking a hit in the public’s eye. We have seen how certain terrible events like Chernobyl were associated with science and how the media has misreported on the debates of the day. We have also touched on the trouble statistics cause and the difficulty in selling uncertainty. So what does this all mean? 

Is science doomed? I don’t think so. For even though the scientific community has lost ground in the struggle against the tides of ignorance, there is light at the end of the tunnel. 

Big business will continue to tell us whatever sells products, journalists will continue to write whatever sells papers, politicians will continue to say whatever wins votes; but these truths are not malicious forces bent on the destruction of science, they are simple evolutionary forces in the pool of life. And I think, that just like mankind, science will simply evolve and move on. 

References: 
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/60510.stm (article at start of MMR scare) 
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/2038135.stm (more recent article summing up MMR scare) 
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0520219783/ref=pd_sim_b_3/103-2618564-5123866?%5Fencoding=UTF8&v=glance&n=283155 
(Damned Lies and Statistics: Untangling Numbers from the Media, Politicians, and Activists)